A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
