Everyday Homicides in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Figures

The mean number of everyday homicides per month in Mexico has fallen by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to fresh government figures. However, public safety analysts have advised that murder numbers could fail to indicate improved countrywide stability.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of close to 55 murders a day in November compared with roughly 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September. This announcement was delivered by the head of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that have been recorded during these months is remarkably notable,” the President stated, explaining that last month the lowest figure of murders were registered for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Violent drug cartel internal conflicts, alongside the administration's highly military campaigns to take on the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than the United States. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an seemingly sharper drop in killings this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President said: “We have a strategy, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central elements of the President's security strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced coordination between government agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns

But, security analysts cautioned that relying on homicide data to draw a conclusion of pacification was misleading. This is especially true in light of the increase in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent news if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same period the previous year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not reliable for assessing the context of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the will to correctly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly means of everyday killings was also concerning because it might obscure days when there were particularly high levels of killings.

“Using the per-day average makes surges of violence unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, per official figures. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

Yet in spite of these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by severe violence, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a notable assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the past 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to express their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to build a picture of safety. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas said.