Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”