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Well. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to together address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a conference hindered from the top if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.