🔗 Share this article

Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold forecast – going beyond the winner overall, and block by block. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win while missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. He possesses a talent for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

How was your night?

I had to do that since they were adding approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I was actually a little nervous initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but there were two big batches of ballots added later and his lead went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for him, where Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But the winner added half a million votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and residents struggling with costs

There were also some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for the former president last year went for the progressive now. However it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I figured we might go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to surpass 50%. He’s at 50.4% but remain around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I hope he does because then no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That really was unexpected. The independent kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island who had a high participation. I think occurred a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for the candidate dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view there was some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the property owners and homeowners all went for the independent. Thus there was some opposition. However no, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election there was coverage on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. Plus, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that every city in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.